Avian flu, particularly highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), is a zoonotic disease carried in birds which is potentially fatal if contracted by people. It can also present a pandemic risk.

In the 2000s, significant investment was made in a number of countries, including Nigeria, to mitigate the risk of HPAI. Nigeria’s investment, with support from the World Bank and others, supported a wide range of complementary capacity building activities to control the disease, ranging from increasing preparedness, surveillance, diagnosis and pathogen characterization, outbreak containment, HPAI prevention, and poultry sector recovery, among others.

A study modelled the trajectory of the disease had no intervention been carried out. The key output variables considered were incremental net benefit, disease cost, and benefit/cost ratio. Benefits in terms of human health risks were not considered, given the uncertainties in estimating them.

The results show that the intervention was economically justified under the endemic scenario with high mortality risk, with a benefit cost ratio estimated to be 1.75.

Had it been possible to include reduced human health risks, the benefits would have been even higher.

In the extreme case of mitigating a potential pandemic, the large public health gains would be immeasurable.

Full citation

Fadiga, M.L., Okike, I. and Bett, B. 2014. An ex post economic assessment of the intervention against highly pathogenic avian influenza in Nigeria. Bio-based and Applied Economics 3(1): 45-61. https://dx.doi.org/10.13128/BAE-12713

Perry, B., et al. 2011. Independent impact assessment of the World Bank-funded Nigeria Avian Influenza Control and Human Pandemic Preparedness and Response Project (NAICP). Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/10680